Ah, England fans. Every couple of years, despite the hash made of qualification, despite the countless years of failure, despite all the evidence that points to the contrary, we still ask the question: could England possibly, maybe, potentially win the World Cup?

The answer of course, is yes. England could, albeit with some outrageous luck, win the World Cup. But they’re definitely not favourites.

The Challengers

Hosts Brazil are favourites for the tournament, and with good reason. Six host nations have won the title while it was in their country out of 19 tournaments. This equates to a ratio of around 31.57%. As well as being the host nation, Brazil are actually pretty bloody good at football as well, in case anyone needed reminding. These two factors are reflected in the Seleção’s (the nickname for the Brazilian national team) odds: they are best priced at 3/1 with Ladbrokes to lift the trophy for a record sixth time in July.

When you take into account the host continent, the case for Brazil is stronger still. Only six nations have won the World Cup on a foreign continent, with there being a case for it being four: two of those wins were South American nations claiming the trophy on Mexican soil, a kind-of grey area for some. This makes for a ratio of either 68.43% or 78.95%, depending on who you ask. This makes sense when you consider second-favourites to win the World Cup are Argentina, and not Spain or Germany. Argentina are 5/1 with SkyBet to lift the trophy on their arch-rival’s soil.

The second statistic also may explain why Colombia and Uruguay are ahead of England in the odds at 28/1 with Bet365 and Betfred respectively. It may also be because they are substantially better than England, but we’re not about to split hairs.

In fact, England are joint-11^th favourites with the new-old-enemy Portugal, at 33/1 with Stan James. The two teams could yet again meet in the quarter-final were certain scenarios to play out. Expect: red cards and penalties. Don’t expect: Cristiano Ronaldo to cry.

Surprisingly, you can find odds of 14/1 on England to reach the final. Even more surprisingly, Belgium are fifth-favourite to make the final, behind Brazil, Argentina, Germany, and Spain, at 15/2 with Spreadex. Football hipsters everywhere will be rejoicing at that news, and the fact that their ‘dark horse’ pick is so well placed.

Our last interesting (and slightly perplexing) point to make is that England are a very favourable 13/2 to finish in the Top Three with Unibet. Hosts Brazil are odds-on at 4/5 with the same bookie, while Argentina are 6/4, again with Unibet. While we hate the Argies (still), 6/4 is a very decent price for a team that we can see making it to the final, and maybe even winning it.

The Collaborators

So if England are to win the World Cup, we would need some pretty strong performances from our players. Now, England don’t possess that many players that you could say were ‘World Class’. But then again, not many teams do. Germany, Brazil, and Spain are probably the three teams who could put out a team containing eight or nine ‘World Class’ players. After that, you’re looking at teams who have a few and some filler, teams who on their day can be a decent, solid unit, and then the dross.

England realistically fall under that second category, no matter how much our fans try to knock us down or build us up.

If England are going to make us proud, or even not embarrass us, at the World Cup, then they will need some impressive performances from their strikers, most notably Wayne Rooney and Daniel Sturridge. The two have been in fantastic form so far this season, and if that carried into the summer, then anything could happen.

The bookmaker odds don’t make great reading for this however; Rooney is as high as 50/1 with BetVictor to be the tournament’s top goalscorer. That’s not to say he’s not in with some illustrious company: Brazil striker Jo is also 50/1 with the same bookie to finish with the most goals. That’s right; the same Jo who distinguished himself so well with Manchester City. Jesus Christ.

Daniel Sturridge fares no better to be honest. He’s out at 80/1 with Stan James to bang in the most goals. Something which is even more startling given that Bruno Alves, the Portuguese CENTRE-BACK and scorer of nine goals in 70 appearances for his country, is 66/1 to get the Golden Boot with Betfred. We’re not even joking. I wish we were, but we’re not.

The optimistic among you may like Betfair’s offer of 80/1 that England will win the World Cup and Wayne Rooney will be the tournament’s top goalscorer. Personally, IF England won the World Cup, and one of our players were to get the Golden Boot, it seems more likely the recipient would be Daniel Sturridge, and not Rooney. The Liverpool wonder and latest saviour is more of a natural goalscorer than Rooney in our opinion, which makes Bet365’s offer of 200/1 for England to win the World Cup and Sturridge to be top goalscorer a little baffling. But hey, these bookies know what they’re on about. Hence why the favourite bet is Lionel Messi to win the Golden Boot and Argentina to win the World Cup at 16/1 with Coral. Makes sense.

The Group

All this talk of England winning the whole thing, but we’ve still yet to touch on the most important part of their journey: the group. England face Italy, Uruguay, and finally Costa Rica in one of the toughest groups to be drawn. Uruguay and Italy are among the top teams in the world, while Costa Rica will be keen to show they are no pushovers either.

We’ve left it until now to explicitly say, but conventional wisdom and bookmaker odds suggest England won’t be getting through the group stage. They are underdogs for both of the opening games, against Italy and Uruguay , and unless those opponents come into the tournament under-strength or England find some magical winning formula, we could be heading home very early.

For the Italy game, England are at 9/5 with William Hill, while Italy are out in front at 6/4 with Boylesports. The draw, which would be a very favourable result for England, is 12/5 with Stan James. This is a completely different Italy from the side that crashed out in the group stage of 2010: they are heading into the tournament brimming with confidence and have been worked into a cohesive attacking unit by the impressive Cesare Prandelli.

Things look a little better against Uruguay; the Luis Suarez-inspired South Americans are 8/5 favourites with SkyBet for this match, while England are 8/5 as well with Paddy Power. The draw can be found at 9/4 with William Hill. Some would argue that Uruguay is a winnable fixture for the Three Lions; while we agree with that, it will take a mammoth effort from England, who will be playing the Uruguayans on their own continent. They will also have to contend with Luis Suarez. Not to mention Edinson Cavani. Ouch.

It’s only when we get to the Costa Rica game, the last in the group, that England become favourites for the first time. England are 8/15 with SkyBet to win, as you’d expect, while Costa Rica are out at 13/2 with BetVictor. The draw is 3/1 with Unibet. Upsets do happen, and England didn’t have the best of times against less-spectacular opponents in the last World Cup (Algeria and Slovenia, anyone?), but we should have enough quality to see off the Costa Ricans. Even if they can call on the mercurial genius that is Bryan Ruiz.

Conclusion

This piece is entitled ‘Can England win the World Cup?’ We stated at the beginning that with a hefty dose of luck, maybe England could. But then again, so could Italy. Or Uruguay. Or Iran. The reality is that England probably won’t win the World Cup. As we’ve seen through bookmaker odds, our chances aren’t brilliant, for good reason.

There are so many strong teams that will be at the 2014 World Cup, and it’s hard to imagine England troubling most of them. But with a favourable draw, and that aforementioned luck, who can really say?

We can always hope!

New Account Offer

Min deposit requirement. Registration Required. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply

Click to Claim