The world’s most famous steeple chase, The Aintree Grand National is not just idolised for being a race of spectacle, endurance and popular folklore. It is also renowned for being one of the biggest betting events of the year.

Everyone loves to get involved whether it be the single punter placing a once a year £10 bet, or simply being in the office sweepstake and relying entirely on the luck of who you pull out of the hat. It is a thrilling brief flirtation with racing’s equivalent of the lottery.

But is it really down to luck? On the whole, yes. The amount of variables to narrow down in order to establish the eventual winner are plentiful. 40 runners, those daunting fences, the stamina sapping 4 miles distance and the fact that the race is a handicap (horse carry different weights based on a combination of speed, pace, form, class and jockey) all adds to a crazy mix. However, we are here to (hopefully) make the job a little simpler.

We will explain everything you need to know about this baffling although thoroughly entertaining race. Want to bet and get paid out for being 2nd, 3rd or 4th…or even 7th? We explain the principles of each way and place betting in order to make your hunch on an outsider a little more appealing.

Not sure what to look for in the formbook? We also guide you with a few pointers based on the huge bank of statistics which the Grand National has provided over the years. First off, the biggest questions that most Grand National punters ask themselves is... should I back the Grand National favourite?

BACKING THE GRAND NATIONAL FAVOURITE

The first thing that needs to be established is knowing whether your horse is going to actually be the favourite, or among the favourites, come the start of the race. Favourites can flip flop right up to the start of the race and often races go off with two or more joint favourites. The favourite for the National usually goes off at anything from 4/1 to 10/1, depending on the volume of bets placed on that horse and the strength of the field. 

So what are the statistics for winning favourites in the Grand National? Since 1998, four favourites have obliged therefore giving a win percentage of 19%. Not hugely encouraging data to support the theory of backing the favourite for favourite’s sake.

Furthermore, two of these winners were joint favourites and there has been no winning favourite of the Grand National since Don’t Push It’s triumph in 2010, ridden by AP McCoy at 10/1. However, the favourite has been placed in 50% of Grand Nationals run since 2000 which indicates that each way betting on the favourite may be the way to go. As a favourite you might expect the horse to have a greater chance of making it around the course, than a horse that is longer odds.

WHAT IS AN EACH WAY BET?

An each way bet is a very popular way of betting on a horse whereby your selection still gives a return if it finishes 2nd, 3rd, 4th (and quite often up to 8th place with some bookmaking firms). An each way bet is essentially two bets. One bet for the horse to win and then one bet for the horse to place. Here is an example:

If you want to bet on a 16/1 chance at £2 each way. Therefore this means you are placing £2 for the win bet and £2 for the place bet. The total cost of placing the bet will be £4 (so 50% of your total stake of £4 going on each scenario)

If the horse wins the race:

You will receive £44 in returns (the win and the place):

Win = 16 x £2 equals £32, plus the returned stake of £2 = £34. 

Place* = 4 x £2 equals £8 plus the returned stake of £2 = £10.

Total Return = £44 (£40 profit and £4 returned stake).

*The place bet is also won as the horse placed in the first four. Most bookmaking firms offer around 1/4 or 1/5 of the original odds for the horse which is placed.

If the horse does not win but places in the race:

Win = No return (so a loss of £2)

Place = 4 x £2 equals £8 plus the returned stake of £2 = £ 10.

Total Return = £8 (£8 profit and £2 returned stake MINUS £2 lost stake).

If the horse does not win or place:

Total Loss = £4 (£2 loss on the win bet and £2 loss on the place bet).

The Grand National is a fantastic opportunity for each way betting as the prices are often big enough to warrant this kind of bet with decent returns guaranteed. The place bet essentially helps as an insurance policy if your horse performs well, but does not quite make it across the line first.

And a reminder again to check bookmaking firms for extra place offers.

KEY STATISTICS OF THE GRAND NATIONAL

POSITIVES

Statistics are crucial for establishing decent chances in the Grand National, and it is useful to be aware of the positive and negative data.

AGE OF THE HORSE

Improving eight year olds have had a decent record in recent Grand Nationals. Improving youngsters with low weight are always good handicap propositions.

FRONT RUNNERS

Front runners are good news. Look on the formbook for those horses who like to keep up with the pace and avoid horses that would have come on from behind (particularly if the race is run in soft conditions).

PREVIOUSLY UNPLACED HORSES

Horses that have previously completed the course and distance without being placed have performed well in the following year's renewal.

PROVEN STAMINA: MUST HAVE WON AT 3 MILES PLUS

Nine of the last ten winners of the Grand National have previously won a chase of 3 miles plus. Therefore proven stamina is essential when making a choice.

NEGATIVES

AGE

Horses aged 8 or younger have not provided great performances down the years whilst, again based on history, horses aged 13 plus should also be avoided.

FALLERS AND PREVIOUS WINNERS

Runners that have fallen or unseated three times or more do not have a great record at Aintree.

To really complicate matters previous Grand National winners and previous placed horses have not performed too great on their follow up appearances. This just proves quite how tough the race is to compete in.

LONG ABSENCES AND CHELTENHAM

Other horses to avoid are those that have been off the track for more than fifty days whilst horses that had a tough race at the Cheltenham Festival (which takes place 2-3 weeks before the Grand National meet) do not generally perform well either.

OTHER USEFUL POINTS TO CONSIDER

IRISH TRAINED WINNERS

Irish trained winners have featured prominently in recent seasons. It is worth narrowing down the best of the Irish trained entries from the first ten in the betting.

HEAVY GROUND? BACK VENETIA WILLIAMS!

English trainer Venetia Williams seems to have a knack of producing staying chasers who perform well in the mud. As a result her entries are definitely worth a consideration if the rain falls in abundance before the big race (which, given it takes place in the North of England is always a possibility!)

RECAP

Overall there are clearly a lot of variables to take into account when selecting a horse for the Grand National. Firstly, if a big outsider is chosen ensure the each way option is taken and shop around for the best placed offers. Avoid betting too early and wait until one or two days before when the big firms announce their Grand National promotions.

Backing the favourite has not paid great dividends down the years but this should not be discouraging as the better and classier horses have been dominating the race in recent years.

Pay great attention to the positive and negative trends that have characterised the race in recent renewals, and remember back a Venetia Williams entry if the rain comes.

GOOD LUCK!

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