CURRENT MATCH ODDS (BEST PRICED ODDS)
Everton: 7/2 (BetVictor - Bet Here!)
Draw: 11/4 (PaddyPower - Bet Here!)
Manchester City: 5/6 (Stan James - Bet Here!)
Everton
(Form check: WLWDW)
Everton showed much more zest in December, after a woeful November period, but the 3 wins Ronald Koeman and his side achieved did not put Koeman in a good new year mood. Instead an away draw to Hull and a home loss to Leicester City in the Cup made Koeman come out publicly to display his angst.
In response the cheque books been opened and three signings look on the horizon, Ademola Lookman (signed for £11 million), Morgan Schneiderlin (reportedly £22 million and Ishak Belfodil (reported £10.4 million). Lookman will be available to play in this match and a dream debut goal can be backed at 3/1 (with Betfred – Bet Here!) as an anytime goalscorer bet.
The problem with Everton right now is we don’t know which team is going to turn up, so there’s no surprise to see them as big as 7/2 (with BetVictor – Bet Here!) to win. One of the draw specialists in the league with 6, they concede just as many as they score (28:23) with those Toffee supporters believing a win to nil is a realistic prospect at @ 6/1 (with Stan James – Bet Here!).
Being strong at home is a real asset though and they’ve lost only 1 of the last 13 matches at Goodison Park. Looking at the team to win and both score markets, real value can be had backing Everton at 7/1 (with bet365 – Bet Here!).
Maarten Stekelenburg joined fellow team members Yannick Bolasie, James McCarthy, Muhamed Besic and Bryan Oviedo on the injury list over Christmas which saw the likes of Tom Davies make his senior debut. The midfield does look weak with a Tom Davies and Gareth Barry partnership, and I can see them both being frustrated and picking up a card or two. 3/1 & 9/10 (at BetVictor – Bet Here!) respectively.
Manchester City
(Form check: WWWLW)
Pep Guardiola joins the list of managers who’s 2016 Xmas period was distinctly average, just take a look at this awkward interview after a 2-1 win against Burnley for example. Whether it’s the brisk British weather, the lack of a Xmas break or the fact that his tactical nous isn’t working week and week out something is definitely grinding his gears.
The funny thing is that Manchester City have won five of their last six matches in all competitions and will be well rested having not played a game for over a week. Laying only 7 points behind Chelsea they are still in with a real shout if they can just stop leaking goals (22 conceded so far compared to Chelsea’s 15, Liverpool’s 22 & Tottenham’s 14). Best Priced 7/1 with multiple firms (Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, Skybet & bet365) to win the league does look a little big as teams are now beginning to fathom the market leader Chelsea’s (4/5 with Sportingbet – Bet Here!) 3-5-2 tactics.
Kevin de Bruyne or David Silva will need to slot into midfield as both Gundogan & Fernandinho both miss the game which could make both more likely in the goal scoring and assist creating markets as they’ll need to be a creative spark moving forward. Out of the two, value is definitely with David Silva - Anytime goalscorer: 13/5 (with PaddyPower – Bet Here!), First goal scorer: 10/1 (with Boylesports – Bet Here!), To score 2 or more 20/1 (with bet365 – Bet Here!).
Incidentally Pep Guardiola's side are reportedly trying to get new signing Gabriel Jesus cleared in time to make his debut for City this weekend which really could liven up Man City’s attack (If you have no idea who he is imagine a similar player to Robinho). He isn’t priced up in any markets but take a second look if he is, just look what he can do!
STATS
- Everton have scored at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches (Premier League).
- Dirty! Everton have received 22Y 1R cards at home this season (Premier League).
- Man City have the second best passing accuracy – 84.4% (Premier League).
- Sergio Aguero has on average 4.8 shots per game (Premier League).
- The Creator! Kevin De Bruyne is leading the assist charts with 9 (Premier League).
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SUMMING UP!
I keep looking at this Everton side and I just see a lot of frailties. A 36 year old Gareth Barry and 18 year old Tom Davies midfield duo is not my cup of tea which can only lead me to think Manchester City could run riot. It’s especially important to get a result to put even more pressure on the players in the later game of the day: Manchester United vs Liverpool. The forward line of Man City just oozes class, pace and goals and I think this could turn into a comfortable away win (and maybe even a clean sheet in the process!).
MY RECOMMENDED BETS
- David Silva to score a brace (10/1 with Boylesports – Bet Here!).
- Sergio Aguero to score first (10/3 with William Hill – Bet Here!).
- Manchester City 4 – 0 (33/1 with Betfair Sportsbook – Bet Here!).
- Half/Full Time Betting: Man City/Man City (19/10 with Coral – Bet Here!).
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Click to ClaimFrancois is one of Howtobet4free’s co-founders and has written many of Howtobet4free’s popular Betting Guides. Francois also helps run the @howtobet4free_ Twitter account