The first of which is that the Texans aren’t here. Well, on the pitch at least; there will be plenty in the stands of the NRG Stadium in Houston. And being Texas, this party is going to be bigger and better than anywhere else on the globe.
NFC champions Atlanta Falcons face their AFC counterparts, New England Patriots on Sunday, February 5th, 2017 in the fiftieth Super Bowl of the modern era and the third to be held in Houston.
The omens are good for the Patriots. Not only did they win Super Bowl XXXVIII in 2004 by beating the Carolina Panthers 32 – 29 in this very stadium, but the AFC champions also won the Super Bowl VIII in 1974 when Miami Dolphins trounced Minnesota Vikings, 24 – 7.
This one is being hailed as the battle of the quarterbacks with the Falcons Matt Ryan and Patriots Tom Brady topping the rankings at the end of the regular season, with neither showing any signs of letting up in the post-season games.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (Coach Bill Belichick)
The injury list shows a lot of walking wounded but Wide Receivers Danny Amendola, Chris Hogan, and Malcolm Mitchell are expected to recover in time for Sunday, as is Tight End Martellus Bennett and Line Backer Dont’a Hightower.
Attention as ever with the Patriots is focussed on Tom Brady, who at 39 years of age, is playing his seventh Super Bowl; his record stands at 4 and 2. Terry Bradshaw of the Steelers and the 49ers Joe Montana are the two quarterbacks with whom he shares the record of four titles. Not bad company to keep but Brady is inspired to be the Greatest Of All Time.
This season was dogged by controversy with “Deflategate” and Brady’s four-match ban for his part in the alleged plot two years ago, to deflate balls in the 2015 AFC Championship game.
He shrugged it off with a passing average of 131.1 but is most likely going to be denied the MVP title this season by his opposite number, Matt Ryan.
Bennett is the player expected to shine once you look beyond the axis of Brady and head coach Bill Belichick. The Tight End scored 7 touchdowns this season, and his 55 receptions came at average of 12.7 yards.
Teammates Hogan and Julian Edelman led Bennett in the regular season stats with 275 and 255 receiving yards respectively and will be crucial but Bennett is this Super Bowls ‘bright young thing’, using this as a springboard to stardom.
The Patriots key to winning the game is stopping Matt Ryan, or at least pressurising him. Green Bay Packers didn’t and he threw 22/27 for 323 yards and 3 touchdowns. However, when the Packers got in amongst the Falcons, Ryan managed just 69 yards and a touchdown, throwing 5/11.
It won’t be easy to maintain that through the four quarters but it can make the Patriots offensive job a lot easier if the defence does this hard work.
ATLANTA FALCONS (Coach Dan Quinn)
The biggest concern for the Falcons is Wide Receiver Julio Jones who has been dogged by a toe injury for a couple of months and having got this far, you sense he would need to be on a life-support machine not to play.
Compared to their more illustrious opponents, this Falcons team is relatively low-key. The best form of defence in head coach Dan Quinn’s eyes, is attack and their regular season points total of 540 was 71 clear of the New Orleans Saints in second place and good enough to place them eighth in the all-time rankings.
The Falcons threw just 7 interceptions and led the NFL with 44.5% First Downs (239/537 attempts) in the regular season. Ryan’s accuracy in the throw is matched by the offensive handling, which has improved in the off-season with the First Down percentage rising to 54.7% on 75 attempts.
Ryan’s arm would be wasted were it not for Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, as well as the mercurial Jones.
While the focus is on the attack, the Falcons defence were no slouches either. Offensive Linebacker Vic Beasley led the NFL in sacks this season while Keanu Neal and Delon Jones are future stars in the making.
The Patriots may be the meanest defence in terms of points conceded but the Falcons are more than prepared to get into Tom Brady’s face to win this game. They will also have their work cut out in stopping Julian Edelman who has been the Patriots leading receiver in 3 of their last 5 games.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
- The Patriots lead the Falcons 7 – 6 overall.
- Tom Brady’s four victories have come with at a minimum +3 point advantage. The below are all regular season matches. The pair has never met in the post-season.
Date Result
24/09/1972 New England 21 – 20 Atlanta
04/12/1977 Atlanta 26 – 10 New England
14/09/1980 New England 21 – 37 Atlanta
30/10/1983 Atlanta 24 – 13 New England
02/11/1986 New England 25 – 17 Atlanta
15/10/1989 Atlanta 16 – 5 New England
29/11/1992 Atlanta 34 – 0 New England
01/10/1995 Atlanta 30 – 17 New England
08/11/1998 New England 10 – 31 Atlanta
04/11/2001 Atlanta 10 – 24 New England
09/10/2005 Atlanta 28 – 31 New England
27/09/2009 New England 26 – 10 Atlanta
29/09/2013 Atlanta 23 – 30 New England
STATS
- New England had the tightest defence in the regular season, conceding 15.6 points per game.
- The Falcons had the best offence, scoring 33.8 per game.
- If the Patriots win, Tom Brady becomes the first quarterback to win 5 Vince Lombardi Trophies
- The Falcons are on a six-match unbeaten run.
- The Patriots are unbeaten in their last seven.
SUPER BOWL ODDS:
New England Patriots to win 8/13 with Betfred – Bet Here!
Atlanta Falcons to win 27/20 with Ladbrokes – Bet Here!
SUMMING UP!
Something must give in this one. The best offence takes on the best defence, all under the auspices of the NFL’s two top quarterbacks. The outcome will hinge on which of the two can free himself of the defensive shackles.
The Falcons Matt Ryan has the stats to back him up this season but Tom Brady isn’t far behind and he has a wealth of experience in these occasions which will just give the Patriots the edge.
BEST BETS:
- Atlanta Falcons to record most turnovers 13/10 (with William Hill – Bet Here!)
- MVP – Tom Brady 10/11 (with Paddy Power – Bet Here!) or Matt Ryan 15/8 (with Skybet – Bet Here!)
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Click to ClaimFrancois is one of Howtobet4free’s co-founders and has written many of Howtobet4free’s popular Betting Guides. Francois also helps run the @howtobet4free_ Twitter account
