Inplay Price Movements

This section will demonstrate how a betfair exchange market odds can change during the course of an inplay Football match. Many factors can contribute to alter the odds of a Football match; a key player suddenly becoming unavailable before kick-off, a goal being scored, a player being sent off, a player being injured, a period of pressure by one team over another or the gradual decline in playing time remaining. 

In this example we consider the Football match between Arsenal and Chelsea. A snapshot of the odds at various times through the course of the 90 minutes will be presented here.

The match result: Chelsea 2-1 Arsenal

Incidents during the game:

-          Chelsea go one nil up, Juan Mata goal on 6 minutes: Chelsea 1-0 Arsenal.

-          Chelsea stretch their lead, Frank Lampard scores with a penalty on 16 minutes: Chelsea 2-0 Arsenal.

-          Arsenal pull a goal back, Theo Walcott scores on 58 minutes: Chelsea 2-1 Arsenal.

Figure 3 shows the odds pregame between Chelsea vs Arsenal. Chelsea are favourites with odds hovering just above evens at decimal odds of 2.04 (to back) and 2.06 (to lay). Arsenal are priced at 4.0 (to back) and 4.1 (to lay), with the draw at 3.75 (to back) and 3.8 (to lay). Also note in the top left corner that £1,785,139 has been traded on this game as at this time reflecting the huge liquidity in the major English Premier League games.

Figure 4 demonstrates the change in odds just after Chelsea take the lead in the game after 6 minutes. As can be seen the odds have now dramatically shortened for the Chelsea win compared to Figure 3. Chelsea are now priced at odds of 1.42 (to back) and 1.43 (to lay). This reflects the goal advantage Chelsea now have as well as the fact there is 84 minutes left of the game.

Moving onto Figure 5, Chelsea extends their lead to 2-0 with goal from Frank Lampard. As can be seen the odds for the Chelsea win now shorted even further to 1.16 (to back) and 1.17 (to lay) reflecting the high probability of Chelsea going onto win the game from this position. Arsenal’s odds to win the match have now lengthened significantly and are 22 (to back) and 24 (to lay). It’s important to note that these odds reflect the time that has elapsed in the game, if this second goal occurred at the midway point in the second half then Chelsea’s odd would be significantly lower than what they are here.

Figure 6 shows the odds at half time, this shows how the odds have barely moved in the 30 minutes since the second Chelsea goal. This highlights the way in which odds do not change considerably until the final quarter of the match when they do start to rapidly move as the playing runs out.

Figure 7 shows how the odds change after Arsenal pull a goal back to make it 2-1. As can be seen the odds for Chelsea now lengthen to 1.33 (to back) and 1.34 (to lay). Chelsea are back to having a one goal lead and these odds can be compared to those in Figure 4; the key difference being the time remaining in the game and also the momentum given that Arsenal have just scored.

Figure 8 shows the change in odds as time elapses and the game draws to the end of 90 minutes.