Supremacy

Market Overview

The supremacy spread bet is another popular market in spread betting. It is a bet that is equivalent to a fixed odds bet on the match result. The supremacy market pitches the two teams against each other, and buying or selling in the supremacy market places a stake on one team’s performance over their opponents. The margin of the victory for either team is important as for each goal scored/conceded the spread will change. This market is particularly relevant in games with one team as a strongly fancied favourite, as the spread price may require the team to win by one or even two clear goals. This means profit can be made if backing an unfancied team who win, draw or even avoid a heavy defeat, or if backing a fancied team who win at ease.

As an example we will use a Champions League game between Chelsea and Shakhtar Donetsk. The team who starts as favourite is listed first and it is their performance you place the bet on. Obviously selling that team is basically backing the opponents. Note when the away team is favourite they will be listed first and a (h) will be shown in brackets after the home team who are listed second, to show this.

Chelsea are slight favourites and therefore are placed ahead on the supremacy with an opening price of 0.4 – 0.6 (note a completely even game would price at -0.1-0.1). The option is either to sell Chelsea at 0.4 or buy Chelsea at 0.6 as shown in image 1

Buying

If you believe that Chelsea are likely to win you would buy for let’s suppose £10 a goal, at odds of 0.6 (as shown in image 2). For each goal that Chelsea win the match over a 0.6 goal margin of victory you would generate a profit. So if Chelsea win by 3 goals (i.e 3-0, 4-1, 5-2, etc) your profit would be £24 (£10 x 2.4 goals). However if Chelsea lose the match by one goal (e.g. 0-1, 1-2, 2-3 etc) then your loss would be at £16 (£10 x 1.6 goals) and so on. Essentially in this market every time a goal is scored your stake (in this case £10) shifts in one direction or the other. As Chelsea are favourites and the draw would mean a slight loss for buyers and a slight gain for sellers.

Selling

If you were to take the view that Shakhtar Donetsk will at least get a draw from the game you would sell Chelsea in the supremacy market for let’s suppose £10 a goal at odds of 0.4 (as shown in image 3). You would profit for each goal margin Shakhtar Donetsk are superior to Chelsea from a 0.4 goal head start. So if Shakhtar Donetsk win the game by 1 goal your profit would be £14 (£10 x 1.4). However if Shakhtar Donetsk lose the game (Chelsea win the game) by three goals you would lose £24 (£10 x 2.4). As Shakhtar Donetsk are second favourites then any draw would mean a slight profit, in this case £4 (£10 x 0.4).

Image 4 shows all of the payouts in the Supremacy market described when buying or selling at a stake of £10.

Stop Loss

In the supremacy market a stop loss account will limit profit or loss at 5 goals either side of the market price, to protect against incurring a large liability on an unusual result. In the example above had Chelsea won 7-0 the 7^th goal would not be counted as profit for those buying Chelsea, or a loss for those selling Chelsea as this would cap at 5.4 and 5.6 goals respectively (0.4 goals + 5 goals for selling, 0.6 goals + 5 goals for buying). Image 5 shows the stop loss capping the maximum win, and the total risk, if selling Arsenal supremacy in an Arsenal Vs Tottenham Premier League match. With a £10 stake this means both the win and risk are at £50 which would happen 5 goals away from the opening price of 0.5-0.7.